Monday, October 15, 2012

The Virginia State Fair is saved, but what?

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And the Emmy winners are...

2012 Emmy Awards: Red carpet arrivals

Madonna performs at the Verizon Center

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And the Emmy winners are...

2012 Emmy Awards: Red carpet arrivals

Madonna performs at the Verizon Center

Virginia’s State Fair is saved, but what will it become?View Photo Gallery — The future of Virginia’s State Fair:?New fair owner Mark Lovell at the fairgrounds in Caroline County.

Smaller TextLarger TextText SizePrintE-mailReprints By Ken Otterbourg, The Washington Post

DOSWELL, Va.— Before bankers make a big deal, they like to run something called a Monte Carlo. It is named for the city in Monaco and its gambling houses, and it works like this: The lenders plug in the numbers and variables of a deal, then run a series of complex computer simulations to see what can go wrong. The fewer avenues to failure, the more confidence there is in a project’s success.

But as anyone who has ever lost money on a sure thing can attest, the odds are only odds. They are predictive — but only to a point. Which is why a few months back on a beautiful spring day, there was an auction in Caroline County, just beyond the shadow of the monster roller coaster at Kings Dominion. What all the Monte Carlos had indicated was extremely unlikely to happen had in fact happened.

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